The missing Ngamia-1 oil dollars: which way forward?

An oil rig in Ngamia-1, Lokichar. Photo courtesy of Twitter.

On March 22, 2012 President Mwai Kibaki  announced what was (then) regarded as Kenya's best business news. He declared that Tullow Oil - a British oil firm - had discovered oil deposits in Ngamia-1; a rural outpost located within the Lokichar Basin of the Turkana County, Northwest Kenya.

On January 20, 2016 researchers from the University of Cambridge, in a study published in 'Nature' - an international journal of science - unearthed the existence of 10,000-year-old remains of 27 people in Nataruk, near the western shores of Lake Turkana. According to the researchers, this newfound proof may be the oldest evidence of warfare between humans; an aspect that further solidified Turkana’s position as the Cradle of Mankind.

In between these two landmark events rest many other developments that, evidently, have had tremendous impacts on Kenya, and Turkana in particular.

One, many places along the oil exploration corridors in Turkana have received an economic boost. Ever since the oil discovery, Turkana County has seen a population explosion with some areas recording an upward shift of about 500 percent.

Two, politically-speaking, Turkana – having endured many years of marginalization – secured its place as the destination to be and where government ought to reinvent its appearance from hitherto ceremonial nature to a people-to-people, development-oriented approach. Turkana ceased to be that cry baby that always needed motherly care from Nairobi’s officialdom.

Already, there is a plan to tarmac Kainuk – Lokichar – Lodwar – Lokichoggio road!

The third development, and drawing from my personal experience, the Turkana Oil discovery has ignited a new thinking towards Kenya’s northern frontier. The number of researches – doctoral or otherwise – centered on Turkana cements this assertion.

Even the way media – both local and international – covers the region has changed. Now it is more of economic potential, investments, profitable business destination and suchlike stories, and less of tribal fights and droughts.

But there is equally a bitter pill to swallow. And this necessitates a deeper reflection vis-à-vis new economic models hinged on the oil find but not principally anchored in it. That is, approaches that will ride on the positive outlook brought by the oil discovery as opposed to remaining attached to that old-school habit of queuing in readiness to receive oil dollars – in form of jobs or free goodies.

Drawing from the current global oil market instability, the diminishing oil price has had a direct effect on oil exploration globally, and Kenya in particular.

The Economist indicates that investments in oil exploration have seen a steady decline. Oil exploration companies have scaled down their operations with others adopting some radical measures like trimming down their workforce.

Nowhere is this real in Kenya than in Turkana County. I will tell you why.

A friend of mine who happened to have worked with Tullow Oil in Turkana as a casual worker intimated to me how life is “hard” right now. He recalls those good days when pockets were full of oil shillings and how easy it was for him and his colleagues to move around splashing cash without much ado.

Lokichar Township – Kenya’s premier oil town – saw an upsurge in beer joints.

Unfortunately, those noisy oil-inspired nouveaux-riches are no more. Ngamia-1 oil dollars have disappeared – without a trace. I hear authorities are worried these idle minds might find solace in not-so-good things like theft and other petty crimes.

But, one may ask, of what importance is it to revisit this Turkana oil issue knowing very well that its social damage, as pointed out above, seems irreversible? Or rather optimistically, how can this situation be salvaged? Is there any way out of this conundrum?

Many ideas come to mind. First, I believe Turkana, and by extension Kenya, has all it takes to build its economy away from oil dollars. I am of the view that the general populace can be made to believe that life can continue smoothly even minus oil jobs.

 

Vis-à-vis shifting our attention from this oil-dependency syndrome, my ideological position is planked on two pillars: first, the collective must feel part of the [oil] deal, and second, the upper classes in Turkana (politicians and all offshoots of elitism) must know that their survival is hinged on the survival of the collective.

I will illustrate the whole thing here.

Sometime in 2013, almost every person with power or connected to those with it talked about tenders. There was this shaky belief among the Turkana elite that the only way to be part of the “oil class” was through trading with the oil firms. Since this charade was mainly powered by politicos, it evolved to become a we-versus-them thing. Street demonstrations popped up from all corners with a clueless public on the frontline “defending their right to trade with oil firms”.

After much haggling and in-door talks and some barazas , the oil firms obliged. They decided to “trade with the public”. The so-called public was loaned vehicles with which to supply goods to the oil exploration sites.

Out of this pseudo-public-banked initiative came up the real faces of the beneficiaries. The general public got zero. Mistrust reigns up to now.

Hope that characterized the first days of the oil discovery dissipated. Everything positive associated with oil crumbled – almost at once!

Call it a case of mismanaged hope. For a county with layers and layers of cultural and anthropological heritage, one would expect the local leadership to project this as the main job creator.

Turkana Cultural Dancers showcasing their talent in  Lodwar . Photo courtesy.

Closely related to this, the unchecked transition of people from nomadism to unsupported sedentary lifestyle drives up poverty levels. It is simple: when nomads settle in towns (permanent settlements/villages), they are confronted with a new challenge. That of relying on skills, rather than livestock wealth for survival.

The nomad in Turkana lacks these skills because no one sees them as an integral element of social development. Everybody with power is preoccupied with tenders, jobs and self-aggrandizement.

So, mustn’t I be tempted to say that for a way forward to exist, and for the collective to be part of this oil game, Ngamia-1 errors must be erased?

Twitter: @mlemukol.